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Aqueduct Race 2 - Race 2 - Maiden Special Weight

PROBABILITY (6) raced on the speed last start and battled on well but found one better over 1609m at this track (Dirt). Top chance in a nice race for him. KAZ OIL CHANGER (2) was close to a maiden win before a 12 weeks break, finishing off with a placing over 1609m at this track (Dirt). Expect he has come on over the break. Nicely placed and expected to go well. ALZERO (5) is back from a spell of 11 weeks. Raced once last campaign and finished third over 1207m at this track (Dirt). Sure to make his presence felt. VOLATILE SITUATION (1) is resuming from a spell of 14 months and having his first run for the Todd Pletcher yard. Was in the placings when first-up from a spell last campaign at this track (Dirt) over 1207m.

Race Time:6:41 PM

Friday, February 27, 2026

Track:Soft

Weather:OCAST

Prize Money:$0.00

Distance:1308m

Volatile Situation (1)223x

Trainer: Todd Pletcher (USA)12 mths 3: 0-2-1

Jockey: Flavien Prat

Weight: 55.5kgs

4 yo Chestnut G

Sire: VOLATILE (USA)

Dam: SUPPLEMENT (USA)

Dam's Sire: Sky Mesa

Stats

Prize Money$58,374.00

Avg $$19,458.00

Win %0.00%

Place %100.00%

Career3: 0-2-1

Track3: 0-2-1

Distance1: 0-1-0

Tr / Dist1: 0-1-0

1st Up1: 0-1-0

2nd Up1: 0-1-0

Firm0: 0-0-0

Good0: 0-0-0

Soft0: 0-0-0

Heavy0: 0-0-0

Synthetic0: 0-0-0

Comments

Racing first-up today. Finished off last campaign third of 8 at this track December 15 2024 over 1408m, 2.75 len behind Fireballin with 54kg at $1.60. On debut second of 9 at this track October 26 2024 over 1207m, 8 len behind Kenny Be carrying 54kg at $5. Solid top-three proposition.

Last Starts 439 days since last start

Place	Date	Days	Class	Prize	Track	Dist.	Cnd.	Jockey	Weight	Race Time	In Run	Gate	Result	Margin	Starting Price
3/8	15/12/2024	22	MDN 2	$115,562.00	Aqueduct	1408m	Fast	K Carmouche	54kg	1:24.57	2-3-3	5	1. Fireballin 2. Roofer 3. Volatile Situation	2.8L	$1.60
2/12	23/11/2024	28	MDN 2	$114,155.00	Aqueduct	1308m	M	K Carmouche	54kg	1:18.85	2-2-2	12	1. Sir Kartrite 2. Volatile Situation 3. Skytown	0.3L	$3.25
2/9	26/10/2024	-	MDN 2	$108,382.00	Aqueduct	1207m	Fast	K Carmouche	54kg	1:10.29	4-2-2	3	1. Kenny Be 2. Volatile Situation 3. Sir Kartrite	8.5L	$5.00

Kaz Oil Changer (2)222x853x

Trainer: Dimitrios Synnefias 12 mths 6: 0-3-1

Jockey: Jaime Rodriguez

Weight: 55.5kgs

4 yo Dark Bay/Brown G

Sire: NAME CHANGER (USA)

Dam: OIL PAINTING (USA)

Dam's Sire: Distorted Humor

Stats

Prize Money$100,630.00

Avg $$16,771.67

Win %0.00%

Place %66.67%

Career6: 0-3-1

Track3: 0-1-1

Distance1: 0-0-0

Tr / Dist1: 0-0-0

1st Up2: 0-1-0

2nd Up2: 0-1-0

Firm0: 0-0-0

Good0: 0-0-0

Soft0: 0-0-0

Heavy0: 0-0-0

Synthetic0: 0-0-0

Comments

Is first-up after a break of 12 weeks and has been in the money when fresh before. Finished off last preparation third of 8 at this track December 5 over 1609m, 7 len behind Twohonestmischief with 55kg at $24.18. Previously first up; eighth of 10 at Aqueduct Turf October 25 over 1609m, 15 len behind Oat Coutour carrying 54.5kg at $9.46. Expect a forward showing.

Last Starts 84 days since last start

Place	Date	Days	Class	Prize	Track	Dist.	Cnd.	Jockey	Weight	Race Time	In Run	Gate	Result	Margin	Starting Price
3/8	05/12/2025	21	MDN 3U	$122,511.00	Aqueduct	1609m	Fast	Silvestre Gonzalez	55kg	1:37.14	1-3-3	2	1. Twohonestmischief 2. Probability 3. Kaz Oil Changer	7.6L	$24.18
5/7	14/11/2025	20	MDN 3U	$122,137.00	Aqueduct	1308m	Fast	Dylan Davis	54.5kg	1:16.62	7-6-5	1	1. Merica's Back 2. Twohonestmischief 3. Poppy's Ticket	9.1L	$9.67
8/10	25/10/2025	71	MDN 3U	$121,766.00	Aqueduct	1609m	FM	Manuel Franco	54.5kg	1:36.72	8-8-8	10	1. Oat Coutour 2. Askingforafriend 3. Inspeightofcharlie	15.3L	$9.46
2/8	15/08/2025	30	MDN 3U	$139,535.00	Saratoga	1609m	Fast	I Ortiz Jr	53.5kg	1:38.22	4-3-2	8	1. Undisputed 2. Kaz Oil Changer 3. Twohonestmischief	9.3L	$5.10
2/6	16/07/2025	33	MDN 3U	$137,615.00	Saratoga	1811m	Fast	I Ortiz Jr	53.5kg	1:51.64	2-2-2	2	1. Iron Dome 2. Kaz Oil Changer 3. Undisputed	10.5L	$5.70
2/6	13/06/2025	-	MDN 3U	$124,417.00	Aqueduct	1811m	Fast	Jose Antonio Gomez	53.5kg	1:52.14	4-2-2	5	1. Toga Dan 2. Kaz Oil Changer 3. Solo Dancing	3.3L	$9.20

Executive Move (3)5x3222x

Trainer: Charlton Baker 12 mths 5: 0-3-1

Jockey: Ricardo Santana, Jr.

Weight: 55.5kgs

5 yo Bay G

Sire: THE FACTOR (USA)

Dam: TWO SUSANS (USA)

Dam's Sire: Purge

Stats

Prize Money$92,621.00

Avg $$18,524.20

Win %0.00%

Place %80.00%

Career5: 0-3-1

Track3: 0-2-0

Distance0: 0-0-0

Tr / Dist0: 0-0-0

1st Up2: 0-0-1

2nd Up1: 0-1-0

Firm0: 0-0-0

Good0: 0-0-0

Soft0: 0-0-0

Heavy0: 0-0-0

Synthetic0: 0-0-0

Comments

Gelding back from a spell of 16 months. Has placed previously first up from a break. Finished off last campaign second in a small field at this track November 2 2024 over 1408m, 6 len behind Clancy Fancy carrying 54.5kg at $2. When resuming last campaign third of 7 at Saratoga July 27 2024 over 1408m, 3 len behind Noonzio carrying 54kg at $17.70. Must be included.

Last Starts 482 days since last start

Place	Date	Days	Class	Prize	Track	Dist.	Cnd.	Jockey	Weight	Race Time	In Run	Gate	Result	Margin	Starting Price
2/6	02/11/2024	29	MDN 3U	$114,155.00	Aqueduct	1408m	Fast	K Carmouche	54.5kg	1:24.24	3-2-2	1	1. Clancy Fancy 2. Executive Move 3. Iron Man Ira	6.0L	$2.00
2/5	04/10/2024	37	MDN 3U	$108,382.00	Aqueduct	1609m	Fast	Joel Rosario	54.5kg	1:37.24	2-3-2	3	1. Sorority Prank 2. Executive Move 3. Accidental Bid	0.1L	$2.35
2/8	28/08/2024	32	MDN 3U	$138,249.00	Saratoga	1609m	Fast	Manuel Franco	53.5kg	1:38.96	3-2-2	7	1. Get A Job 2. Executive Move 3. Stormy's Dreaming	7.0L	$4.55
3/7	27/07/2024	211	MDN 3U	$135,338.00	Saratoga	1408m	Fast	Jaime A Torres	54kg	1:26.26	5-3-3	2	1. Noonzio 2. Sorority Prank 3. Executive Move	3.0L	$17.70
5/11	29/12/2023	-	MDN 2	$105,581.00	Aqueduct	1207m	M	A S Worrie	54kg	1:11.52	4-6-5	11	1. Doc Sullivan 2. Sorority Prank 3. Allied Attack	8.0L	$29.75

Alzero (4)66x246x3x

Trainer: Kevin Bond (USA)12 mths 6: 0-1-1

Jockey: Christopher Elliott

Weight: 55.5kgs

4 yo Bay G

Sire: GOLDENCENTS (USA)

Dam: BEE NOTEWORTHY (USA)

Dam's Sire: Read The Footnotes

Stats

Prize Money$39,944.00

Avg $$6,657.33

Win %0.00%

Place %33.33%

Career6: 0-1-1

Track4: 0-1-1

Distance1: 0-0-0

Tr / Dist1: 0-0-0

1st Up3: 0-1-1

2nd Up2: 0-0-0

Firm0: 0-0-0

Good0: 0-0-0

Soft0: 0-0-0

Heavy0: 0-0-0

Synthetic0: 0-0-0

Comments

Back from a spell. Only had one start last preparation 3rd in a small field at this track on December 12 over 1207m, 0.6 len behind Liberty Rising with 55.5kg at $4.74. When resuming last campaign 2nd of 10 at this track on June 14 over 1207m, 0.5 len behind Cousin Ed carrying 53.5kg at $5.20. Expected to prove hard to beat.

Last Starts 77 days since last start

Place	Date	Days	Class	Prize	Track	Dist.	Cnd.	Jockey	Weight	Race Time	In Run	Gate	Result	Margin	Starting Price
3/6	12/12/2025	111	MDN 3U	$122,511.00	Aqueduct	1207m	Fast	Christopher Elliott	55.5kg	1:14.17	5-4-3	2	1. Liberty Rising 2. Tomschickenfingers 3. Alzero	0.6L	$4.74
6/10	23/08/2025	27	MDN 3U	$139,535.00	Saratoga	1207m	Fast	Jose Ortiz	54kg	1:09.61	10-6-6	6	1. Long Pour 2. Merica's Back 3. Speightful Storm	9.6L	$8.80
4/10	27/07/2025	43	MDN 3U	$137,615.00	Saratoga	1408m	SP	Jose Ortiz	54kg	1:24.73	5-2-4	8	1. Crescendo's Rein 2. Solo Jim 3. Keepinitreal	4.0L	$8.40
2/10	14/06/2025	77	MDN CLM 3U	$74,650.00	Aqueduct	1207m	SP	Katie Davis	53.5kg	1:10.65	2-2-2	10	1. Cousin Ed 2. Alzero 3. Prince Of Dance	0.5L	$5.20
6/12	29/03/2025	36	MDN 3	$117,274.00	Aqueduct	1308m	Fast	Katie Davis	54.5kg	1:18.25	3-5-6	6	1. Share The Ludt 2. Tiote 3. Motel Patel	10.8L	$44.00
6/10	21/02/2025	-	MDN 3	$119,163.00	Aqueduct	1408m	Fast	Katie Davis	54.5kg	1:27.61	6-6-6	5	1. Mo For The King 2. Grand Cash 3. Tiote	10.8L	$28.50

Probability (5)53x22

Trainer: Amelia J Green (USA)12 mths 4: 0-2-1

Jockey: Manuel Franco

Weight: 55.5kgs

4 yo Chestnut H

Sire: IMPROBABLE (USA)

Dam: PERAZZI (USA)

Dam's Sire: Curlin

Stats

Prize Money$65,689.00

Avg $$16,422.25

Win %0.00%

Place %75.00%

Career4: 0-2-1

Track3: 0-2-1

Distance0: 0-0-0

Tr / Dist0: 0-0-0

1st Up2: 0-1-0

2nd Up2: 0-1-1

Firm0: 0-0-0

Good0: 0-0-0

Soft0: 0-0-0

Heavy0: 0-0-0

Synthetic0: 0-0-0

Comments

Third-up today. Not raced for 49 days. Resuming ran on from midfield; 2nd of 8 at this track on December 5 over 1609m, nose behind Twohonestmischief with 55kg at $2.51. Last start 2nd in a small field at this track on January 9 over 1609m, 0.3 len behind Sequential carrying 55.5kg at $1.25. Capable of a better showing. Respect.

Last Starts 49 days since last start

Place	Date	Days	Class	Prize	Track	Dist.	Cnd.	Jockey	Weight	Race Time	In Run	Gate	Result	Margin	Starting Price
2/5	09/01/2026	35	MDN OCLM 4U	$112,108.00	Aqueduct	1609m	Fast	Manuel Franco	55.5kg	1:38.21	1-2-2	3	1. Sequential 2. Probability 3. Ice Shot	0.3L	$1.25
2/8	05/12/2025	440	MDN 3U	$122,511.00	Aqueduct	1609m	Fast	Manuel Franco	55kg	1:37.14	4-1-2	5	1. Twohonestmischief 2. Probability 3. Kaz Oil Changer	0.1L	$2.51
3/11	21/09/2024	49	MDN 2	$110,294.00	Aqueduct	1207m	Fast	K Carmouche	54kg	1:11.16	4-3-3	4	1. Man In Finance 2. Kenny Be 3. Probability	10.5L	$3.15
5/10	03/08/2024	-	MDN 2	$138,249.00	Saratoga	1207m	SP	I Ortiz Jr	54kg	1:11.29	7-6-5	3	1. Smilensaycheese 2. The Toner 3. Corvus	13.6L	$3.65