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Ellis Park Race 5 - Race 5 - Allowance
IF IF IF (4) First up. Set the pace when winning by just short of 9L last time at Oaklawn Park. First appearance for a new trainer. Gets a chance to win. OVERCOME ADVERSITY (2) First up after 21 weeks and caught the eye when 2nd beaten by 1 3/4L first up last preparation at Turfway Park. Will be motoring home late. Looks promising in this race. FRENCH BLUE (6) Was quite a handful for the competition when 3rd last run at Churchill Downs and competing at a lower level of competition. Should race on the speed. Serious player. RATIONAL THEORY (1) Weakened to finish 6th last time at Churchill Downs. Has the potential to improve sharply and will be aiming for a soft run from the draw. Expecting to settle positively. Good place bet.
Race Time:6:44 PM
Sunday, July 5, 2026Track:Firm
Weather:fine
Prize Money:$0.00
Distance:1207m
1
Rational Theory (1)33472X2116
Trainer: Steven M. Asmussen 12 mths 12: 2-2-3
Jockey: Brian Joseph Hernandez, Jr.
Weight: 55.5kgs
4 yo Bay F
Sire: Practical Joke
Dam: Aunt Dorothy
Dam's Sire: Uncle Mo
Stats
Prize Money$0.00
Avg $$0.00
Win %16.67%
Place %58.33%
Career12: 2-2-3
Track1: 0-1-0
Distance8: 2-2-2
Tr / Dist1: 0-1-0
1st Up2: 0-1-0
2nd Up1: 1-0-0
Firm8: 2-1-3
Good2: 0-1-0
Soft0: 0-0-0
Heavy1: 0-0-0
Synthetic1: 0-0-0
Comments
Odds of $8.00 and tailed off to finish 6th last time at Churchill Downs. Has the potential to improve sharply and has drawn to do little work. Prefer a race with softer competition.
Last Starts 23 days since last start
| Place | Date | Days | Class | Prize | Track | Dist. | Cnd. | Jockey | Weight | Race Time | In Run | Gate | Result | Margin | Starting Price |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 6/9 | 12/06/2026 | - | Allowance 89 | $0.00 | Churchill Downs | 1106m | FM | Keith J Asmussen | 56kg | - | 2-2-3 | 8 |
| 5.1L | $0.00 |
| 1/9 | 25/05/2026 | - | Starter Allowance 91 | $0.00 | Churchill Downs | 1207m | FT | Keith J Asmussen | 56kg | - | 1-1-1 | 2 |
| 3L | $0.00 |
| 1/9 | 09/04/2026 | - | MDN Special Weight 74 | $0.00 | Oaklawn Park | 1207m | FT | Erik Asmussen | 56kg | - | 3-3-1 | 7 |
| 8.3L | $0.00 |
| 2/9 | 06/03/2026 | - | MDN Special Weight 76 | $0.00 | Oaklawn Park | 1207m | FT | Erik Asmussen | 56kg | - | 1-1-2 | 1 |
| 9.5L | $5.50 |
| 2/7 | 04/07/2025 | - | 3U | $0.00 | Ellis Park | 1207m | FAST | Keith J Asmussen | 54.5kg | - | 2-2-2 | 8 |
| 1.25L | $2.90 |
| 7/10 | 07/06/2025 | - | 3U | $0.00 | Churchill Downs | 1106m | GOOD | Keith J Asmussen | 53.5kg | - | 4-4-4 | 2 |
| 2.8L | $13.00 |
| 4/6 | 19/04/2025 | - | MDN Special Weight 85 | $0.00 | Oaklawn Park | 1207m | FT | Erik Asmussen | 55.5kg | - | 2-1-2 | 3 |
| 8.2L | $8.50 |
| 3/7 | 22/03/2025 | - | MDN Special Weight 79 | $0.00 | Oaklawn Park | 1207m | FT | Erik Asmussen | 54.5kg | - | 3-2-2 | 4 |
| 1.3L | $5.50 |
| 3/8 | 18/01/2025 | - | MDN Special Weight 86 | $0.00 | Oaklawn Park | 1207m | FT | Erik Asmussen | 51.5kg | - | 1-1-3 | 6 |
| 3.3L | $8.00 |
| 3/12 | 15/11/2024 | - | MDN Special Weight 77 | $0.00 | Churchill Downs | 1006m | FT | Erik Asmussen | 51.5kg | - | 1-2-2 | 12 |
| 4.5L | $10.00 |
| 9/10 | 27/09/2024 | - | MDN Special Weight 77 | $0.00 | Churchill Downs | 1106m | SY | Tyler Gaffalione | 54kg | - | 1-1-6 | 2 |
| 21.3L | $3.10 |
| 4/6 | 18/08/2024 | - | MDN Special Weight 78 | $0.00 | Saratoga | 1207m | MY | Jose Lezcano | 54kg | - | 1-1-3 | 6 |
| 9.8L | $8.50 |
2
Overcome Adversity (2)1X20X
Trainer: Matt A. Shirer 12 mths 3: 1-1-0
Jockey: Francisco Arrieta
Weight: 55.5kgs
4 yo Bay F
Sire: Maclean's Music
Dam: Worldly Heiress
Dam's Sire: Wildcat Heir
Stats
Prize Money$0.00
Avg $$0.00
Win %33.33%
Place %66.67%
Career3: 1-1-0
Track0: 0-0-0
Distance0: 0-0-0
Tr / Dist0: 0-0-0
1st Up2: 1-1-0
2nd Up1: 0-0-0
Firm2: 0-1-0
Good0: 0-0-0
Soft0: 0-0-0
Heavy1: 1-0-0
Synthetic0: 0-0-0
Comments
First up after 21 weeks and made some ground late when 2nd first up last preparation at Turfway Park. Possesses very good finishing speed. Matched against less formidable competition. Must respect.
Last Starts 148 days since last start
| Place | Date | Days | Class | Prize | Track | Dist. | Cnd. | Jockey | Weight | Race Time | In Run | Gate | Result | Margin | Starting Price |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 12/12 | 07/02/2026 | - | Allowance 95 | $0.00 | Oaklawn Park | 1710m | FT | Luis Saez | 53kg | - | 5-5-6-11 | 2 |
| 16.8L | $2.80 |
| 2/12 | 17/12/2025 | - | Allowance 93 | $0.00 | Turfway Park | 1308m | FT | Luan Machado | 53.5kg | - | 12-10-8 | 7 |
| 1.8L | $3.25 |
| 1/9 | 11/04/2025 | - | 03 | $0.00 | Keeneland | 1408m | HEAVY | Joel Rosario | 54.5kg | - | 4-3-1 | 4 |
| 2.25L | $15.00 |
3
True Princess (3)56129X6X4X
Trainer: Lonnie Briley 12 mths 12: 2-1-1
Jockey: Gabriel Saez
Weight: 55.5kgs
5 yo Bay M
Sire: Maximus Mischief
Dam: Raramuri Princess
Dam's Sire: Northern Afleet
Stats
Prize Money$0.00
Avg $$0.00
Win %16.67%
Place %33.33%
Career12: 2-1-1
Track0: 0-0-0
Distance4: 1-0-0
Tr / Dist0: 0-0-0
1st Up3: 0-0-1
2nd Up0: 0-0-0
Firm8: 1-1-0
Good0: 0-0-0
Soft0: 0-0-0
Heavy0: 0-0-0
Synthetic4: 1-0-1
Comments
First run back from a break of 41 weeks. Came in 4th last run at Churchill Downs. Giving another chance here but facing a stronger group of contenders. Can't suggest backing.
Last Starts 288 days since last start
| Place | Date | Days | Class | Prize | Track | Dist. | Cnd. | Jockey | Weight | Race Time | In Run | Gate | Result | Margin | Starting Price |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 4/7 | 20/09/2025 | - | Starter Allowance 91 | $0.00 | Churchill Downs | 1207m | FT | Edgar Morales | 55kg | - | 3-2-2 | 7 |
| 2.6L | $22.00 |
| 6/7 | 21/12/2024 | - | Starter Allowance 90 | $0.00 | Oaklawn Park | 1207m | FT | Travis Wales | 53.5kg | - | 3-6-5 | 3 |
| 11.8L | $16.00 |
| 9/11 | 08/09/2024 | - | Allowance 95 | $0.00 | Kentucky Downs | 1408m | FM | Corey J Lanerie | 53.5kg | - | 5-9-10 | 2 |
| 22.1L | $23.00 |
| 2/6 | 12/07/2024 | - | Allowance 86 | $0.00 | Evangeline Downs | 1609m | FT | Elio J Barrera | 54kg | - | 2-3-2-3 | 6 |
| 0.8L | $3.10 |
| 1/10 | 05/05/2024 | - | Claiming 79 | $0.00 | Oaklawn Park | 1207m | SY | Travis Wales | 53.5kg | - | 2-2-1 | 7 |
| 1.3L | $11.00 |
| 6/6 | 05/04/2024 | - | Stakes 87 | $0.00 | Evangeline Downs | 1207m | FT | Joel Dominguez | 53kg | - | 5-6-6 | 3 |
| 20L | $13.00 |
| 5/8 | 26/01/2024 | - | Allowance Optional Claiming 89 | $0.00 | Fair Grounds | 1106m | SY | Jose Andres Guerrero | 54kg | - | 5-1-3 | 4 |
| 7.1L | $26.00 |
| 6/7 | 14/12/2023 | - | Allowance 69 | $0.00 | Delta Downs | 1006m | FT | Jansen Melancon | 54.5kg | - | 6-5-6 | 6 |
| 8.5L | $3.75 |
| 7/9 | 10/11/2023 | - | Stakes 79 | $0.00 | Delta Downs | 1408m | SY | Jansen Melancon | 53kg | - | 3-3-5 | 8 |
| 13.9L | $51.00 |
| 1/7 | 21/10/2023 | - | MDN Special Weight 56 | $0.00 | Delta Downs | 1006m | FT | Jansen Melancon | 54.5kg | - | 1-1-1 | 1 |
| 2.3L | $1.75 |
| 6/12 | 03/09/2023 | - | MDN Special Weight 69 | $0.00 | Kentucky Downs | 1408m | FM | Jon Kenton Court | 54kg | - | 1-1-2 | 1 |
| 4.8L | $18.00 |
| 3/5 | 22/07/2023 | - | MDN Special Weight 56 | $0.00 | Evangeline Downs | 1006m | SY | Jansen Melancon | 53.5kg | - | 1-1-2 | 1 |
| 2L | $4.50 |
4
If If If (4)2X1
Trainer: Chris A. Hartman 12 mths 2: 1-1-0
Jockey: Danny Sheehy
Weight: 53.5kgs
3 yo Chestnut F
Sire: Basin
Dam: Doc Mo's Daughter
Dam's Sire: Uncle Mo
Stats
Prize Money$0.00
Avg $$0.00
Win %50.00%
Place %100.00%
Career2: 1-1-0
Track0: 0-0-0
Distance1: 1-0-0
Tr / Dist0: 0-0-0
1st Up2: 1-1-0
2nd Up0: 0-0-0
Firm2: 1-1-0
Good0: 0-0-0
Soft0: 0-0-0
Heavy0: 0-0-0
Synthetic0: 0-0-0
Comments
First up from a spell. Assumed control from the start when winning by nearly 9L last time at Oaklawn Park. First race for a new trainer. Good enough chance at a very tempting price.
Last Starts 78 days since last start
| Place | Date | Days | Class | Prize | Track | Dist. | Cnd. | Jockey | Weight | Race Time | In Run | Gate | Result | Margin | Starting Price |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1/6 | 18/04/2026 | - | MDN Claiming 73 | $0.00 | Oaklawn Park | 1207m | FT | Keith J Asmussen | 55.5kg | - | 1-1-1 | 4 |
| 8.8L | $0.00 |
| 2/9 | 31/05/2025 | - | MDN Special Weight 81 | $0.00 | Churchill Downs | 1006m | FT | Keith J Asmussen | 54kg | - | 7-7-4 | 8 |
| 0.8L | $3.70 |
5
Vicki Rose (5)216X261241
Trainer: Pavel Matejka 12 mths 18: 3-6-1
Jockey: Luan Machado
Weight: 55.5kgs
6 yo Chestnut M
Sire: Jimmy Creed
Dam: Planar
Dam's Sire: Empire Maker
Stats
Prize Money$0.00
Avg $$0.00
Win %16.67%
Place %55.56%
Career18: 3-6-1
Track0: 0-0-0
Distance12: 3-4-1
Tr / Dist0: 0-0-0
1st Up5: 0-3-0
2nd Up3: 0-1-1
Firm14: 1-5-1
Good1: 0-0-0
Soft0: 0-0-0
Heavy1: 0-1-0
Synthetic2: 2-0-0
Comments
Led throughout to win by a nose last time at Churchill Downs but up against a more competitive field. Displays good tactical speed. Not in this.
Last Starts 44 days since last start
| Place | Date | Days | Class | Prize | Track | Dist. | Cnd. | Jockey | Weight | Race Time | In Run | Gate | Result | Margin | Starting Price |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1/5 | 22/05/2026 | - | Claiming 81 | $0.00 | Churchill Downs | 1207m | SY | Luan Machado | 56kg | - | 1-1-1 | 1 |
| 0.1L | $0.00 |
| 4/11 | 28/03/2026 | - | Claiming 83 | $0.00 | Turfway Park | 1207m | FT | Dylan Machado | 56kg | - | 2-2-2 | 9 |
| 5L | $5.00 |
| 2/6 | 21/02/2026 | - | Claiming 83 | $0.00 | Turfway Park | 1207m | FT | Dylan Machado | 56kg | - | 1-1-1 | 1 |
| 2L | $4.20 |
| 1/12 | 07/01/2026 | - | Claiming 78 | $0.00 | Turfway Park | 1207m | FT | Dylan Machado | 55kg | - | 3-2-1 | 5 |
| 0.5L | $6.00 |
| 6/8 | 17/11/2025 | - | Allowance 85 | $0.00 | Mountaineer Park | 1106m | FT | Antioco Murgia | 56kg | - | 1-2-3 | 1 |
| 10.5L | $3.70 |
| 2/5 | 03/11/2025 | - | Allowance 84 | $0.00 | Mountaineer Park | 1106m | FT | Antioco Murgia | 56kg | - | 2-1-1 | 5 |
| 0.1L | $3.50 |
| 6/9 | 11/06/2025 | - | Allowance 86 | $0.00 | Horseshoe Indianapolis | 1006m | GD | Alberto Burgos | 55.5kg | - | 5-5-6 | 8 |
| 7.5L | $16.00 |
| 1/5 | 25/04/2025 | - | MDN Claiming 75 | $0.00 | Keeneland | 1207m | SY | Mario Gutierrez | 56.5kg | - | 1-1-1 | 3 |
| 1.8L | $3.70 |
| 2/6 | 06/03/2025 | - | 3-6yo | $0.00 | Mahoning Valley | 1207m | HEAVY | Yuri Yaranga | 57kg | - | 1-1-1 | 1 |
| 0.25L | $1.85 |
| 5/12 | 18/01/2025 | - | MDN Special Weight 80 | $0.00 | Turfway Park | 1207m | FT | Walter A Rodriguez | 55.5kg | - | 5-6-4 | 3 |
| 6.3L | $6.00 |
| 5/11 | 18/04/2024 | - | MDN Special Weight 81 | $0.00 | Keeneland | 1106m | FM | Luan Machado | 56.5kg | - | 3-2-2 | 8 |
| 7.5L | $15.00 |
| 4/11 | 29/03/2024 | - | MDN Special Weight 75 | $0.00 | Oaklawn Park | 1207m | FT | Cristian A Torres | 56kg | - | 11-9-4 | 6 |
| 9.3L | $7.00 |
| 2/8 | 17/02/2024 | - | MDN Special Weight 76 | $0.00 | Oaklawn Park | 1207m | FT | Cristian A Torres | 56.5kg | - | 5-5-3 | 4 |
| 5.5L | $7.50 |
| 3/9 | 04/01/2024 | - | MDN Special Weight 76 | $0.00 | Turfway Park | 1207m | FT | Luan Machado | 55.5kg | - | 3-2-3 | 8 |
| 6.3L | $13.00 |
| 2/7 | 16/11/2023 | - | MDN Special Weight 76 | $0.00 | Churchill Downs | 1207m | FT | Rafael Bejarano | 55.5kg | - | 3-2-2 | 1 |
| 9.8L | $6.00 |
| 5/11 | 11/03/2023 | - | MDN Special Weight 83 | $0.00 | Turfway Park | 1207m | FT | Santiago Gonzalez | 54.5kg | - | 6-6-5 | 7 |
| 6.3L | $0.00 |
| 7/7 | 03/06/2022 | - | MDN Special Weight 81 | $0.00 | Churchill Downs | 1106m | FT | Martin Garcia | 54kg | - | 2-6-7 | 1 |
| - | $0.00 |
| 2/7 | 13/05/2022 | - | MDN Special Weight 81 | $0.00 | Churchill Downs | 1006m | FT | Carlos Villasana | 54kg | - | 4-4-3 | 1 |
| 1L | $0.00 |
6
French Blue (6)135523
Trainer: Bob Baffert 12 mths 6: 1-1-2
Jockey: Florent Geroux
Weight: 53.5kgs
3 yo Bay F
Sire: Gun Runner
Dam: Twenty Carat
Dam's Sire: Into Mischief
Stats
Prize Money$0.00
Avg $$0.00
Win %16.67%
Place %66.67%
Career6: 1-1-2
Track0: 0-0-0
Distance2: 1-1-0
Tr / Dist0: 0-0-0
1st Up1: 1-0-0
2nd Up1: 0-0-1
Firm6: 1-1-2
Good0: 0-0-0
Soft0: 0-0-0
Heavy0: 0-0-0
Synthetic0: 0-0-0
Comments
Peaked on the run when 3rd beaten by 1L last run at Churchill Downs and up against a less challenging field. Must be considered here.
Last Starts 15 days since last start
| Place | Date | Days | Class | Prize | Track | Dist. | Cnd. | Jockey | Weight | Race Time | In Run | Gate | Result | Margin | Starting Price |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 3/10 | 20/06/2026 | - | Allowance 92 | $0.00 | Churchill Downs | 1408m | FT | Irad Ortiz Jr | 53.5kg | - | 2-2-1 | 5 |
| 1L | $0.00 |
| 2/8 | 28/05/2026 | - | Allowance Optional Claiming 90 | $0.00 | Churchill Downs | 1207m | FT | Irad Ortiz Jr | 53.5kg | - | 3-3-2 | 8 |
| 5.3L | $0.00 |
| 5/8 | 01/05/2026 | - | Allowance Optional Claiming 91 | $0.00 | Churchill Downs | 1308m | FT | Flavien Prat | 53.5kg | - | 6-3-3 | 7 |
| 7L | $0.00 |
| 5/7 | 04/04/2026 | - | 03 | $0.00 | Santa Anita | 1710m | FIRM | Florent Geroux | 56kg | - | 1-1-1-5 | 3 |
| 24.25L | $0.00 |
| 3/7 | 08/03/2026 | - | Stakes 94 | $0.00 | Santa Anita | 1710m | FT | Florent Geroux | 54.5kg | - | 1-1-1-2 | 3 |
| 3.3L | $3.25 |
| 1/10 | 08/01/2026 | - | MDN Special Weight 87 | $0.00 | Santa Anita | 1207m | FT | Juan J Hernandez | 55.5kg | - | 3-2-1 | 10 |
| 2.3L | $1.65 |