Keeneland Race 5 - Race 5 - Maiden Special Weight
COMPREHENSIVE (3) Just short of the win last time at Gulfstream Park and solid career start. Should muster plenty of early speed. Should go close. TILSON (2) Career debut 3yo by Instagrand for trainer William Walden and has a positive stall. Betting is the best guide. UNDERAPPRECIATED (1) Despite fading at the finish still placed 2nd beaten by 3/4L last start at Turfway Park and drawn the rails. Should muster plenty of early toe. Must respect. PROVIDER (11) Ran 6th last start at Fair Grounds. Jockey Juan J Hernandez is in form. Has the necessary speed to overcome the wide draw. Should be competitive in this race at a bit of odds.
Jockey: Edgar Morales
Weight: 54.5kgs
Stats
Comments
Was strong on the speed before fading to finish 2nd last start at Turfway Park and has minimal work to do from the stall. Great chance.
Last Starts 28 days since last start
| Place | Date | Days | Class | Prize | Track | Dist. | Cnd. | Jockey | Weight | Race Time | In Run | Gate | Result | Margin | Starting Price |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2/5 | 14/03/2026 | - | MDN Special Weight 87 | $0.00 | Turfway Park | 1609m | FT | Adam Beschizza | 54.5kg | - | 1-1-1-1 | 1 |
| 0.8L | $2.80 |
| 6/9 | 28/02/2026 | - | MDN Special Weight 89 | $0.00 | Turfway Park | 1609m | FT | Edgar Morales | 54.5kg | - | 3-4-3-4 | 5 |
| 10.5L | $8.50 |
| 3/11 | 04/12/2025 | - | MDN Special Weight 86 | $0.00 | Turfway Park | 1609m | FT | Adam Beschizza | 54kg | - | 5-5-2-1 | 7 |
| 0.2L | $13.00 |
| 8/11 | 18/10/2025 | - | MDN Special Weight 86 | $0.00 | Keeneland | 1710m | FT | Adam Beschizza | 54kg | - | 4-4-5-6 | 6 |
| 15.6L | $51.00 |
| 6/12 | 04/09/2025 | - | MDN Special Weight 69 | $0.00 | Kentucky Downs | 1609m | FM | Edgar Morales | 54kg | - | 10-9-10-5 | 4 |
| 11.6L | $61.00 |
Jockey: Luan Machado
Weight: 54.5kgs
Stats
Comments
3yo first starter by Instagrand for trainer William Walden and can find a nice position from the draw. Watch the betting.
Jockey: Mario Gutierrez
Weight: 54.5kgs
Stats
Comments
Threw down a serious challenge last time at Gulfstream Park and showing consistent performance in races. Mario Gutierrez and Brian A Lynch are an appealing combination. Serious contender.
Last Starts 34 days since last start
| Place | Date | Days | Class | Prize | Track | Dist. | Cnd. | Jockey | Weight | Race Time | In Run | Gate | Result | Margin | Starting Price |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2/9 | 08/03/2026 | - | MDN Special Weight 90 | $0.00 | Gulfstream Park | 1609m | FM | Mario Gutierrez | 55.5kg | - | 2-2-1-1 | 6 |
| 0.3L | $2.45 |
| 3/12 | 08/02/2026 | - | MDN Special Weight 95 | $0.00 | Gulfstream Park | 1609m | FM | Mario Gutierrez | 55.5kg | - | 7-4-2-2 | 12 |
| 0.3L | $6.00 |
| 2/8 | 17/01/2026 | - | MDN Special Weight 88 | $0.00 | Gulfstream Park | 1710m | FM | Mario Gutierrez | 55.5kg | - | 2-2-2-1 | 7 |
| 0.1L | $4.50 |
| 8/12 | 20/12/2025 | - | MDN Special Weight 92 | $0.00 | Gulfstream Park | 1710m | FM | Mario Gutierrez | 54.5kg | - | 5-6-6-6 | 5 |
| 3.3L | $11.00 |
Jockey: Kazushi Kimura
Weight: 54.5kgs
Stats
Comments
Odds of $23.00 and was found wanting late when 5th last start at Gulfstream Park. Shows good early pace. Overlook from a betting angle.
Last Starts 41 days since last start
| Place | Date | Days | Class | Prize | Track | Dist. | Cnd. | Jockey | Weight | Race Time | In Run | Gate | Result | Margin | Starting Price |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 5/12 | 01/03/2026 | - | MDN Special Weight 96 | $0.00 | Gulfstream Park | 1811m | FM | Pietro Moran | 55.5kg | - | 2-2-2-1 | 5 |
| 3.3L | $21.00 |
| 6/8 | 25/01/2026 | - | MDN Special Weight 88 | $0.00 | Gulfstream Park | 1609m | FT | David Egan | 55.5kg | - | 5-5-6-6 | 6 |
| 19L | $26.00 |
Jockey: Irad Ortiz, Jr.
Weight: 54.5kgs
Stats
Comments
Managed to run into 3rd beaten by nearly 7L last run at Turfway Park. Others make far more appeal.
Last Starts 31 days since last start
| Place | Date | Days | Class | Prize | Track | Dist. | Cnd. | Jockey | Weight | Race Time | In Run | Gate | Result | Margin | Starting Price |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 3/10 | 11/03/2026 | - | MDN Special Weight 90 | $0.00 | Turfway Park | 1609m | FT | Edgar Morales | 54.5kg | - | 6-7-5-3 | 4 |
| 6.8L | $26.00 |
| 5/12 | 14/02/2026 | - | MDN Special Weight 86 | $0.00 | Turfway Park | 1609m | FT | Edgar Morales | 54.5kg | - | 6-5-5-6 | 5 |
| 6.3L | $18.00 |
| 4/11 | 07/01/2026 | - | MDN Claiming 79 | $0.00 | Turfway Park | 1609m | FT | Joseph D Ramos | 54.5kg | - | 7-6-5-5 | 5 |
| 3L | $7.50 |
| 6/7 | 23/10/2025 | - | MDN Special Weight 83 | $0.00 | Keeneland | 1408m | FT | Tyler Gaffalione | 54kg | - | 6-5-6 | 7 |
| 14L | $15.00 |
Jockey: Joel Rosario
Weight: 54.5kgs
Stats
Comments
Started $5.00 and ran 7th last time at Gulfstream Park. Danny Gargan stable are on a hot streak. Likely to settle back in the field. Chances are slim.
Last Starts 41 days since last start
| Place | Date | Days | Class | Prize | Track | Dist. | Cnd. | Jockey | Weight | Race Time | In Run | Gate | Result | Margin | Starting Price |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 7/12 | 01/03/2026 | - | MDN Special Weight 96 | $0.00 | Gulfstream Park | 1811m | FM | Joel Rosario | 55.5kg | - | 9-8-8-7 | 9 |
| 3.5L | $3.60 |
| 6/12 | 20/12/2025 | - | MDN Special Weight 92 | $0.00 | Gulfstream Park | 1710m | FM | Micah J Husbands | 54.5kg | - | 11-10-11-9 | 6 |
| 2.5L | $14.00 |
Jockey: Dylan Machado
Weight: 54.5kgs
Stats
Comments
Back from a break. Odds of $8.00 and finished 6th last run at Turfway Park but was a debutant last start. First appearance for a new trainer. Hard to see it being competitive today.
Last Starts 99 days since last start
| Place | Date | Days | Class | Prize | Track | Dist. | Cnd. | Jockey | Weight | Race Time | In Run | Gate | Result | Margin | Starting Price |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 6/12 | 02/01/2026 | - | MDN Claiming 70 | $0.00 | Turfway Park | 1609m | FT | Dylan Machado | 54.5kg | - | 5-5-4-6 | 2 |
| 7.9L | $7.00 |
Jockey: Jaime A. Torres
Weight: 54.5kgs
Stats
Comments
First up. Started at $14.00 and came in 6th last run at Turfway Park. Will be giving the leaders a big start. Place best.
Last Starts 111 days since last start
| Place | Date | Days | Class | Prize | Track | Dist. | Cnd. | Jockey | Weight | Race Time | In Run | Gate | Result | Margin | Starting Price |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 6/11 | 21/12/2025 | - | MDN Special Weight 92 | $0.00 | Turfway Park | 1710m | FT | Vincent Cheminaud | 54kg | - | 11-11-11-8 | 10 |
| 8.6L | $13.00 |
| 5/12 | 09/11/2025 | - | MDN Special Weight 81 | $0.00 | Churchill Downs | 1710m | FM | Vincent Cheminaud | 54kg | - | 10-11-10-7 | 9 |
| 2.1L | $41.00 |
| 8/12 | 25/10/2025 | - | MDN Special Weight 72 | $0.00 | Keeneland | 1811m | FM | Luan Machado | 54kg | - | 9-10-11-9 | 7 |
| 9.3L | $26.00 |
| 6/11 | 28/08/2025 | - | MDN Special Weight 75 | $0.00 | Kentucky Downs | 1609m | FM | Luan Machado | 54kg | - | 9-9-10-7 | 7 |
| 7.3L | $18.00 |
| 3/8 | 04/08/2025 | - | MDN Special Weight 79 | $0.00 | Ellis Park | 1710m | FM | Rafael Bejarano | 54kg | - | 2-2-3-4 | 3 |
| 1.1L | $17.00 |
| 4/8 | 06/07/2025 | - | 02 | $0.00 | Ellis Park | 1609m | FAST | Rafael Bejarano | 54kg | - | 4-4-5-5 | 7 |
| 7.5L | $17.00 |
Jockey: Ben Curtis
Weight: 54.5kgs
Stats
Comments
Odds of $9.00 and gave ground when 4th last time at Fair Grounds. Should be rolling forward early from the wide draw. Could feature here.
Last Starts 35 days since last start
| Place | Date | Days | Class | Prize | Track | Dist. | Cnd. | Jockey | Weight | Race Time | In Run | Gate | Result | Margin | Starting Price |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 4/11 | 07/03/2026 | - | MDN Special Weight 97 | $0.00 | Fair Grounds | 1609m | FM | Ben Curtis | 55.5kg | - | 3-4-3-3 | 5 |
| 2.6L | $8.00 |
| 5/9 | 05/02/2026 | - | 03 | $0.00 | Fair Grounds | 1710m | FAST | Ben Curtis | 54.5kg | - | 5-8-8-8 | 7 |
| 4.5L | $7.00 |
Jockey: Juan J. Hernandez
Weight: 54.5kgs
Stats
Comments
At $7.50 finished 6th last start at Fair Grounds. The wide stall shouldn't be a problem with plenty of early speed. Juan J Hernandez is highly regarded. Can't leave out of your calculations.
Last Starts 35 days since last start
| Place | Date | Days | Class | Prize | Track | Dist. | Cnd. | Jockey | Weight | Race Time | In Run | Gate | Result | Margin | Starting Price |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 6/11 | 07/03/2026 | - | MDN Special Weight 97 | $0.00 | Fair Grounds | 1609m | FM | Axel Concepcion | 55.5kg | - | 5-3-2-2 | 9 |
| 3.6L | $6.50 |
| 3/9 | 05/02/2026 | - | 03 | $0.00 | Fair Grounds | 1710m | FAST | Paco Lopez | 54.5kg | - | 4-5-3-2 | 8 |
| 2.25L | $8.50 |
Jockey: Tyler Gaffalione
Weight: 54.5kgs
Stats
Comments
Jumped at $6.00 and ran past a few when 4th last run at Gulfstream Park and having second career run. Tough race will need luck.
Last Starts 43 days since last start
| Place | Date | Days | Class | Prize | Track | Dist. | Cnd. | Jockey | Weight | Race Time | In Run | Gate | Result | Margin | Starting Price |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 4/10 | 27/02/2026 | - | MDN Special Weight 91 | $0.00 | Gulfstream Park | 1609m | FM | Irad Ortiz Jr | 55.5kg | - | 7-7-6-2 | 1 |
| 2.6L | $4.60 |